Sunday, March 16, 2008

Another Rate Cut

The Fed cut the discount rate another quarter point, on a Sunday no less. Also announced today, JP Morgan Chase is buying Bear Stearns for $2 a share. Bear (BSC) closed at $30 on Friday, down from $57 on Thursday and a 52-week high of $159.36. The purchase price adds up to $236.2 Million. Their office building is supposedly worth over $1 Billion, alone. Wall Street Journal reports: "Bear Stearns had a stock-market value of about $3.5 billion as of Friday -- and was worth $20 billion in January 2007. " The Fed advanced JPM $30 Billion against Bear's illiquid assets according to WSJ: "Fed officials wouldn't describe the exact financing terms or assets involved. But if those assets decline in value, the Fed would bear any loss, not J.P. Morgan."


Mortgage rates are unchanged. The dollar has slipped again. Gold is up 2%.


Congratulations, American taxpayer. You just bought a share in Bear Stearns. If the value goes up, you get your money back. If the value falls, you take the hit. It's almost as good as the odds in Vegas, but you don't get a free drink from a cutie in a skimpy skirt.


Even my dog thinks this stinks.

Monday, March 10, 2008

TheStreet.com : Another Missouri Bank Fails | TheStreet.com Ratings

TheStreet.com : Another Missouri Bank Fails TheStreet.com Ratings: "When asked about the likelihood of the depositors recovering a significant portion of uninsured balances, Mr. McClure said he was 'not optimistic in this case.'

TheStreet.com provides conservative, objective financial strength ratings for all U.S. banks and S&Ls. While you may feel no need to worry about your bank's health if you have deposits of less than the FDIC's standard $100,000 limit, chances are that you or someone you know is associated with a business, school district or other entity with large deposits in a local bank.

You can quickly check your institution's rating using the ratings screener."

This is the second bank failure of 2008. It's not a bad idea to check your bank's rating.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Recent home sale transactions in Orangevale, CA

Sacramento area homes have been stagnating on the market despite substantial price reductions. In my own neighborhood, renovated homes are listed at 35% below peak pricing - and the comps that sold at peak prices weren't renovated much, if at all. If you factor in the remodeling costs, that's more than a 35% discount - and no one's interested. So I was curious about what IS selling.

The Sacramento Bee publishes home sales in the business section of the Sunday paper. One city I follow is Orangevale, which is about 10 miles outside downtown Sacramento, roughly in the middle of Sacramento and Folsom. (Not a bad place to live, if you have to live in the Sacramento area.) This week's paper lists 4 sales transactions.

Below are the sold homes that were reported in the Bee. All are located in Orangevale, so I only listed the street address. Sales history is copy-and-pasted from zillow.com, with my own commentary. There are two 40%+ discounts and two 30%+ discounts - out of four sales. I've already written about some of the new home communities selling in this area; although the homes are larger than these resale homes, it is worth noting that Centex is offering new homes at about $130/sq. ft. in sizes ranging from 2000-4500 sq. ft., although the new homes are not in as desirable locations.

8947 Woodward Way

Sale History
08/10/2007: $216,750 *
09/17/2002: $199,000
Zillow does not show the recent sale reported in the SacBee, w/a $193k selling price.
Peak zestimate: $331k in 2005

$201/sq. ft. Quarter acre lot. I don't know anything personally about this home, but zillow shows it as a 3/1, 960 sq. ft. late '50s home. The overhead view shows a house that's smaller and boxier than its neighbors, with a backyard littered with cars, plus an above-ground pool, a detached 2-car garage, and an RV. Peak sale to recent sale, the loss is minor. Peak Zestimate to recent sale, however, is a different story. $138k decline in value, or 41%. Probably a cash-out refi at some point.

8728 Sherry Dr

Sale History
02/11/2008: $235,000
07/21/2005: $400,000
11/01/2001: $160,000

$200/sq. ft. .31 acre lot. I don't know anything personally about this home, but zillow shows it as a 3/2, 1178 sq. ft. '50s home. The overhead view shows a lush green backyard. Peak sale to recent sale, this is a $165k loss, or 41%.

7415 larkspur
02/08/2008: $260,000
07/15/2005: $385,000 *
12/30/1992: $134,000

$258/sq. ft. 1008 sq. ft. house, .43 acre lot, house next door has been on the market for something like 2 years, asking over $500k at one point. I haven't seen inside this house, but the neighboring house is a completely bizarre remodel where a mobile home was attached to the original house, and next door to that mess is large acreage being used, best I can tell, as a trash dump. Loss is $125k, 32%.

6935 filbert

Sale History
02/08/2008: $250,000
08/22/2005: $367,000
08/08/2001: $155,000

$156/sq. ft. About 1/3rd acre, 1602 sq. ft., was remodeled and then went REO, neighbor kids were breaking in and using it as a party pad, while other neighbors were using the front yard as a trash dump. Another funky remodel. After the 2005 purchase for $367k, a lot of money was dumped into renovations - exterior stucco, a large addition, kitchen reno, etc. It went inactive several months ago, without coming back on the market as far as I've seen, but now it's suddenly sold. Asking price from the bank was about $265k. Not counting renovation costs or peak market value - strictly comparing selling prices - this is a $117k vaporization of equity, 32% price drop.

The asterisk notes the following (copy-and-paste from zillow.com):
"Transaction Not Included in Zestimate
This transaction was not used in computing the Zestimate for this house due to anomalies we detected with this transaction. These anomalies can include unusual document or transaction types, sales between possibly related parties, unusually high or low transaction prices, or other data irregularities that might indicate the transaction is not a full-value, arms-length transaction."